 |
Forecasts of GDP Growth
(All
rates are annual percentages)
Release
date: First Quarter
2010
- Forecasts
of the mean growth rate were obtained by aggregating over trajectories
of growth simulated using the estimated model.
- In addition to
simulating growth, the model also predicts regime-shifts.
- Currently, a
regime shift in the near future would imply a switch from the sluggish
regime to one with robust economic activity.
- The mean growth rate in the table below was aggregated over all possible realization of
regime-shifts in the forecast horizon and hence is unconditional of
future regime-shifts.
- The confidence intervals reflect growing
uncertainties typical of forecasts and, importantly, those arising from possible
regime-shifts.
- The confidence intervals use an estimate of
the variance of the process produced over the "Great Moderation" period. Use of
a larger variance (as estimated using post-war data) produces progressively
larger confidence intervals (up to 40% larger).
Mean-Growth Forecasts and 95% Confidence
Intervals
| Quarter |
Growth Rate |
Lower Bound |
Upper Bound |
Prob. Of Negative
Growth (%) |
| 2010:I |
2.18 |
-2.26 |
5.58 |
29% |
| 2010:II |
2.26 |
-3.06 |
8.4 |
27% |
| 2010:III |
2.57 |
-2.86 |
9.44 |
23% |
| 2010:IV |
2.39 |
-2.26 |
9.36 |
19% |
| 2011:I |
2.89 |
-2.21 |
10.68 |
19% |
| 2011:II |
3.08 |
-1.56 |
10.28 |
13% |
| 2011:III |
3.02 |
-1.44 |
10.32 |
12% |
| 2011:IV |
3.18 |
-1.8 |
10.1 |
15% |
| 2012:I |
3.33 |
-2.34 |
10.98 |
18% |
| 2012:II |
3.55 |
-2.76 |
10.98 |
20% |
| 2012:III |
3.82 |
-3.06 |
10.8 |
22% |
Probability of Regime-Shifts and Predictive Densities of Growth Rate Conditional on Future Regime-Shifts.
- The most likely dates for a regime-shift to occur are centered around the
second quarter of 2010.
- Note: The picture below is not up-to-date. Please check back in a few
hours.
|
|
|
|
