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Forecasts of NBER-Dated Recession Occurrences
Release
date: First Quarter
2010
Predicting the
end of current recession
- The National Bureau of Economic Research has
declared that the U.S.
has been in a recession since December 2007.
- Due to the
announcement by NBER, only the likely dates
(quarters) for the end of the current recession were computed (using
simulated trajectories of future-growth).
- In contrast, our previous predictions for duration of recessions
accounted for the uncertainty associated with their start-dates.
- Figures below illustrate the probability of
the current
recession ending at specific quarters and its probable duration.
- The panels indicate that
the current recession may
have ended in third quarter of 2009.
- The non-stochastic recession
dating procedure described
here.
Note
that the probabilities illustrated in the picture may not add up to one
due to rounding.
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