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Full details of the forecasting model upon which these forecasts are based are provided in "Predicting Regime-Shifts in U.S. GDP Growth " below. In the paper, the model is referenced as "DHLR".

Revised Paper and Codes Forthcoming.

Data used for estimation (External Site: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Note: The above program is a constantly evolving one and does not include some auxiliary pieces. Contact the webmaster for the latest functional version.



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Chart of current and past forecasts of GDP growth
Probability of a recession-start and duration of recessions.
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Non-Technical Model Description
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