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This website is devoted to reporting forecasts of GDP growth, and characterizations of the current state of the macroeconomy.

This information represents the output of a forecasting model developed by David N. DeJong, Dharmarajan Hariharan, Roman Liesenfeld, and Jean-Francois Richard.

DeJong and Richard are Professors in the Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh; Liesenfeld is a Professor in the Department of Economics, Kiel University.

Summary of the Latest Announcement
Based on latest release (01/29/2010) from BEA.

Forecast of GDP Growth rate in
I Quarter 2010: 2.18%

Previous Forecast of GDP growth rate in IV quarter 2009

-0.7%

Actual GDP growth in IV quarter 2009

5.73%

We strongly encourage you to read further details before any use of our results. Please click here for Details.

Real-Time GDP Growth Forecast

 Real-Time forecast of Likelihood of the end of the current recession

Likelihood of a Recession

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Details of latest forecast
GDP Forecasts and Regime-Shift Probabilities
Probability of a recession-start and duration of recessions.
Chart of past forecast performance
Non-Stochastic Recession-Dating Procedure
Non-Technical Model Description
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