 |
Past Forecasting Performance
(All
rates are annual percentages)
Release date: First Quarter
2010
-
The tables reproduce the point forecasts we issued one to
three months ahead of each of the quarters indicated. Therefore, they ignore
subsequent data and/or model revisions.
-
Forecasts from 2002:III to 2008:I were obtained using the
old model specification. Forecasts since 2008:II were obtained using the new model specification.
|
Past
Forecasts
|
| |
|
GDP
Growth
|
|
Year |
Quarter |
Actual |
Forecast |
Error |
|
2002 |
III |
2.6 |
3.6 |
1 |
|
2002 |
IV |
0.74 |
2.95 |
2.21 |
|
2003 |
I |
1.93 |
2.44 |
0.51 |
|
2003 |
II |
4.11 |
2.11 |
2 |
|
2003 |
III |
7.41 |
2.76 |
-4.65 |
|
2003 |
IV |
4.18 |
4.17 |
-0.01 |
|
2004 |
I |
4.49 |
4.14 |
-0.35 |
|
2004 |
II |
3.3 |
3.32 |
0.02 |
|
2004 |
III |
4 |
3.35 |
-0.65 |
|
2004 |
IV |
3.8 |
3.38 |
-0.42 |
|
2005 |
I |
3.8 |
3.7 |
-0.1 |
|
2005 |
II |
3.8 |
3.3 |
-0.5 |
|
2005 |
III |
3.85 |
4.3 |
0.45 |
|
2005 |
IV |
1.6 |
3.8 |
2.2 |
|
2006 |
I |
5.3 |
3.7 |
-1.6 |
|
2006 |
II |
2.65 |
3.73 |
1.08 |
|
2006 |
III |
1.6 |
4 |
2.4 |
|
2006 |
IV |
3.5 |
3.08 |
-0.42 |
|
2007 |
I |
0.7 |
3.75 |
3.05 |
|
2007 |
II |
4 |
3.5 |
-0.5 |
|
2007 |
III |
4.9 |
3.25 |
-1.65 |
|
2007 |
IV |
0.6 |
4 |
3.4 |
|
2008 |
I |
0.9 |
3.65 |
2.75 |
|
2008 |
II |
1.9 |
0.46 |
-1.44 |
|
2008 |
III | -0.25 |
1 |
1.25 |
|
2008 |
IV |
-6.3 |
1.5 |
7.8 |
|
2009 |
I |
-5.5 |
-1.25 |
4.25 |
|
2009 |
II |
-3.5 |
-0.7 |
2.8 |
|
2009 |
III |
3.5 |
-2.6 |
6.1 |
|
2009 |
IV |
5.73 |
-0.7 |
6.43 |
|
|
|
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